10 years from the Great Hanshin earthquake/possible to predict Kobe eathquake if happening now.[EarthaqukeAlert]

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10 years from Kobe eathquake/possible to predict Kobe eathquake if happening now

Contents
10 years from the Great Hanshin earthquake
EarthaqukeAlert Predict Infomation/possible to predict Kobe eathquake if happening now

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10 years from the Great Hanshin earthquake
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The direct type earthquake below:10 years from Kobe eathquake

1995.1.17 05:46 M7.3 the Great Hanshin earthquake/KobeEarthqukae dead6433　The fault earthquake　Ms6.8 Mw6.9
The direct type earthquake below

Due to the activity The active fault(NojimaFault)In addition to a lot of woodens, the concrete building, the expressway, the railway which contains the Superexpress and so on, too, collapsed.
There was damage of 6433 dead persons, doing three missing, equal to or more than 40,000 injured persons, equal to or more than 240,000 house of completely or partially destroyed, that equal to or more than 6,000 house of completely or partially destroyed by the fire.

Because they were early morning, most of the dead persons were due to the collapse of the house and the fire.
The number of the dead persons was the most after World War II in Japan.

294 fires by the earthquake occurred at the whole and 7121 in amount burned down.
They became the fire which is the worst after the war in Japan that 0.66 square kilometers burn down.

By The disaster assumption which changed the occurrence time of the Hyogo Prefecture southern part earthquake in Kobe city
When occurring in the daytime, they say " that the number of the dead persons has the possibility to increase overwhelmingly ".
The factor to make a disaster occur to is about the occurrence place, too, over a variety to spread.
(The plan of the Kobe city area protection against disasters)

By "The Headquarters for Earthquake Reserch Protection" of Japan
The probability immediately ahead of the Great Hanshin earthquake occurrence in 1995

The fault band name /The occurring earthquake scale ( The magnitude )/The earthquake occurrence probability ( Within 30 years )/The average activity interval

NojimaFault/ 7.3/ 0.4％〜8％/(The temporary value)/1800years〜3000years(The temporary value)

This is、by"The Headquarters for Earthquake Reserch Protection"
at" Relative evaluation on the main active fault in Japan "
"In the main active fault in Japan, they belong to the high group."

Japan is supposed to have entered from Kobe earthquake in the activity period of the earthquake.

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EarthaqukeAlert Predict Infomation/possible to predict Kobe eathquake if happening now
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You can see by looking at the home page of EarthaqukeAlert, we predict all large-scale damage earthquakes as "Alert Period Alerte Periode ".

the Great Hanshin earthquake is M7.3
Such an earthquake, too, originates in "Alert Period Alerte Periode " of EarthaqukeAlert.

In EarthaqukeAlert, we are seeing the occurrence of the earthquake in the world but we are reporting the possibility of the occurrence of the big earthquake ( M equal to or more than 6.5 ) in Japan precision better.

We make the probability which happens in Japan of the earthquake of equal to or more than 6.5 M numerical value.(The period which is careful in Japan with this becomes 1/5 or 1/10 on the theory.)

40%(60%) 03.20 M7.0 6 or less pieces of seismic intensity The Fukuoka Prefecture western offing earthquake
　(60 % in the new standard)
30% 12.26 M9.0 Sumatra Indonesia Earthquake(SouthAsiaTunamiEarthquake)[100 % of probabilities that the earthquake of the M8 level happens in the world]
55% 11.29 M7.1 5 or more pieces of seismic intensity　Hokkaidou Kushiro Earthquake
50% 10.23 M6.8 Seismic intensity 7 Niigata Tyuuetu Earthquake
40% 10.15 M6.6 5 or less pieces of seismic intensity　Okinawa Taiwan
70% 09.05 M6.9/M7.3 5 or less pieces of seismic intensity Kii-hanto Earthquake
30% 07.26 M7.3 Indonesia
30% 07.15 M7.1 Fiji
80% 2003.09.26 M8.0 6 or less pieces of seismic intensity The Hokkaidou Tokachi-oki earthquake[60 % of probabilities that the earthquake of the M8 level happens in the world]

Reference
2004.12.16
6,500,000 650,000 12,000 dead-person burning-down going home difficult persons - person of metropolitan local earthquakes ( Central Disaster Prevention Council )[EarthaqukeAlert]
死者1万2千人65万棟焼失650万人の帰宅困難者-首都直下地震(中央防災会議)[地震注意報]
http://earthquakealert.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2004/12/1265650.html

2004.12.10
The crust something unusual in Kinki northern part
The rock remarkable of the distortion being done
We observe in Kyoto University at four.
The calm-ization of the earthquake, too[EarthaqukeAlert]
近畿北部の地殻異変　岩盤のひずみ顕著　４カ所で京大観測　地震の静穏化も[地震注意報]
http://earthquakealert.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2004/12/post_2.html

January 30, 2005
100 % of probabilities that the earthquake over the M8 level happens in the Indonesian Sumatra offing earthquake occurrence times in the world[EarthquakeAlert]
http://earthquakealert.cocolog-nifty.com/global/2005/01/100__of_probabi.html

March 20, 2005
M7.0 6 or less pieces of seismic intensity-Fukuoka Japan. We predicted this Earthquake as 40%.[EarthaqukeAlert]
http://earthquakealert.cocolog-nifty.com/global/2005/03/m70_6_or_less_p.html

2004.11.29
M7.1 5 or more pieces of seismic intensity-Hokkaido Kushiro Japan. We predicted this Earthquake as 55%.[EarthaqukeAlert]
北海道 釧路沖 M7.1 震度５強を発生率55%として予知[地震注意報]
http://earthquakealert.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2004/11/___55.html

UpDate:
2005.04.21
We studied the possibility of the earthquake occurring of equal to or more than 6.5 M at various part of Japan areas and we found a scientific difference.[EarthaqukeAlert]
日本全国地域別のM6.5以上の地震発生の可能性を研究し、有意差を見出しました。[地震注意報]
http://earthquakealert.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2005/04/m65_87f9.html

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Original article of Japanese
2005.01.17
直下型地震阪神淡路大震災から10年/阪神大震災も今起これば地震予知可能[地震注意報]
http://earthquakealert.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/2005/01/10.html

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